Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 4.519907 5.389618 6.354786 7.501494 8.822709 10.293107 12.049072
2025-03-30 3.227102 4.390200 5.827690 7.716515 10.112375 13.027785 16.818694
2025-04-06 2.377208 3.633577 5.338386 7.776825 11.123083 15.495355 21.570031
2025-04-13 1.801823 3.059375 4.913228 7.766768 11.951709 17.750960 26.252741
2025-04-20 1.545439 2.867917 4.956757 8.370164 13.649071 21.309699 33.016232
2025-04-27 1.282228 2.592296 4.801831 8.619676 14.818573 24.197203 39.069789
2025-05-04 1.093488 2.393094 4.720283 8.947918 16.113838 27.356809 45.764337
2025-05-11 0.897507 2.129129 4.471273 8.941819 16.843478 29.681746 51.349941
2025-05-18 0.707786 1.826529 4.089932 8.632189 17.003397 31.081838 55.559621
2025-05-25 0.548380 1.543181 3.686281 8.207537 16.889755 31.988919 59.002956
2025-06-01 0.451072 1.373739 3.476991 8.115063 17.347504 33.875679 64.180220
2025-06-08 0.371021 1.222913 3.276215 8.003416 17.743902 35.669143 69.304749
2025-06-15 0.337911 1.189998 3.340679 8.469179 19.335243 39.778018 78.849771
2025-06-22 0.289182 1.098826 3.252088 8.592919 20.264040 42.760797 86.631420
2025-06-29 0.243542 1.001487 3.128288 8.617865 20.990917 45.422115 94.018879
2025-07-06 0.203567 0.907547 2.992641 8.592132 21.603061 47.904884 101.237984
2025-07-13 0.193992 0.914889 3.130929 9.244597 23.744684 53.521636 114.678950
2025-07-20 0.172358 0.870737 3.116248 9.514349 25.063398 57.593189 125.416926
2025-07-27 0.155863 0.840244 3.134969 9.870972 26.610613 62.228217 137.508463
2025-08-03 0.132268 0.770964 3.021782 9.864058 27.315302 65.180172 146.474949
2025-08-10 0.105499 0.674585 2.800020 9.526867 27.199911 66.404790 152.076549
2025-08-17 0.081587 0.577526 2.549548 9.064291 26.722497 66.810831 156.033976
2025-08-24 0.067731 0.523012 2.431251 8.963519 27.128667 69.152487 164.083630